Lake Havasu City, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS65 KVEF 010730
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1230 AM PDT Thu May 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered convection is expected north
and west of I-15 this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds, lightning,
and light- to-moderate rain will be possible with these storms. A
stronger weather will arrive this weekend, bringing gusty winds,
widespread precipitation chances, and a sharp decrease in
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today.

A shortwave trough off the coast of southern California will move
through southeastern California, clipping southern Nevada and
northwest Arizona. Moisture will increase as this system moves
through, with precipitable water (PW) rising to 0.60 to 0.80 inches
or around 150 to 200% of normal for early May. This anomalous
moisture combined with upper-level diffluence and surface heating
resulting in 100 to 300 J/kg of CAPE will allow for isolated showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms
are primarily expected north and west of the I-15 corridor. However,
convection may develop as far south as the higher terrain north of I-
40 in San Bernardino and Mohave counties. Showers and thunderstorms
will tend to favor areas of higher terrain for development beginning
later this morning/early this afternoon. The primarily threats with
any convection that develops will be 30 to 40 mph outflow winds and
lightning. Light-to-moderate precipitation rates will result in
slick roads, especially on roadways that have not seen
precipitation in a few weeks. Afternoon convection will wrap up as
we loose daytime heating after sunset.

Outside of these showers and thunderstorms, temperatures across the
region will be similar to yesterday`s with partly-to-mostly cloudy
skies from vicinity convection.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.

The main player over the weekend and now well into next week hasn`t
changed but the track and speed of this main upper low has. The
initial weaker system will be exiting the area to the east on Friday
but will still be close enough to provide showers and thunderstorms
to at least eastern Mohave County. As the main low is off the
Pacific Northwest coast on Friday afternoon, heights will rise ahead
of it and so will temperatures making it the warmest day of the
period. As the low drops down the coast on Saturday winds will be
increase area wide. Overall, the winds have been trending weaker and
with the upper low along the central California coast on Saturday
afternoon, the flow will be more southerly. CAPE values (generally a
few hundred) will be sufficient across much of southern Nevada on
Saturday afternoon as well as in Inyo County for thunderstorm
development in addition to an area of more stratiform rain across
the northern fringes of the CWA. As the upper low strengthens and
closes up it will be located over the lower Colorado River Valley on
Sunday afternoon. Sunday will provided the best opportunity for more
widespread precipitation, especially across the southern Great Basin
and northwest Arizona.

One additional concern will be how cold this system is for early May.
Snow levels will fall to around 8000 feet in the eastern Sierra
Saturday night and may be as low at 7000 feet by Sunday morning.
This will pose significant problems for anyone recreating in terms
of both temperatures and the likelihood of several inches of snow
above 8000 feet.

The clusters and ensembles keep the closed low in western Arizona
through Monday and several members keep the low in Arizona into
Wednesday and even retrograde it back to the west. When the low
actually exits will have an impact on how long some cooler
temperatures and precipitation chances will linger. With the slower
progression of the low the coolest day now looks to be Monday with
high temperatures 20 to 25 degrees below their seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Winds have diminished this evening, a light west to
southwest winds under 8KT will prevail for the overnight period
before becoming light and variable early Thursday morning. A brief
period of east or northeast winds are possible Thursday late morning
and early afternoon, however winds will remain at 8KT or less.
Confidence in the Thursday afternoon wind forecast is low as wind
patterns may be influenced by weak outflows from nearby convection
that is expected to develop after 21Z around the valley. Most
likely, winds will be light out of the southeast, however a push of
northwest or southwest winds is possible with gusts over 20KT if
outflows do develop Thursday afternoon. Any showers or thunderstorms
that develop in the afternoon will end after sunset Thursday
evening. Winds Thursday night will favor typical wind patterns with
wind speeds remaining under 8KT through Friday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Any lingering showers or
thunderstorms will end in the next few hours and a dry night is
expected. After a lull in the precipitation tonight, additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon
across California, far southern Nevada, and northwest Arizona.
Convection on Thursday will bring  the potential for lightning,
sudden gusty winds, and CIGs to 5000ft. Any precipitation will wane
after sunset.

KDAG west winds at 10-15KT will continue through the night but
elsewhere winds will diminish and become light tonight. On Thursday,
winds should remain light outside of any convective influence. South
winds in the Colorado River Valley will increase to around 10KT
Thursday afternoon with a few gusts of 15-20KT possible. Occasional
CIGs a round 10kft-15kft will persist through the period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Nickerson

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter